Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fueled a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”