Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.